Moyuka Uchijima vs Polona HercogUS Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
#99WTA
1681ELO
1633Hard ELO
25 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 13 · 1st on
#233WTA
1590ELO
1524Hard ELO
35 yrs · 182 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLLWWWL
Uchijima M.
6-3 6-3
Hercog P.
Uchijima M.
662
Hercog P.
330

Moyuka Uchijima defeated Polona Hercog in the US Open qualifying first round, 6-3, 5-3. Uchijima served 0 aces and 2 double faults, while Hercog served 1 ace and 4 double faults. Uchijima won 71% of her first serves and converted 42% of her break points, compared to Hercog's 56% and 50%, respectively; Uchijima won 5 service breaks to Hercog's 2.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-02-27W50 Trnava 1R32hardMoyuka Uchijima6-4 4-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
65%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
49%
Service points won·Even
55%
59%
Return points won·Even
46%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
50%
56%
Aces / match·Even
2.1
2.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (41 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
14
10
Break points saved·Clear edge
4
25
Break points won·Slight edge
66
73
Deciding sets·Even
2
5
Tiebreaks·Dominant
83
6

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Uchijima M.61%
Hercog P.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Uchijima M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.4+109 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Hard Elo 1524
6.1Overall Elo 1680
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1590
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.87 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.85 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
6.0Reached the R64 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
78
93

Uchijima M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Hercog P.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 58%

Draw