Yue Yuan vs Hanyu GuoUS Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
#138WTA
1629ELO
1610Hard ELO
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 10 · 2nd on
#210WTA
1625ELO
1592Hard ELO
28 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWWLL
Yuan Y.
6-2 6-4
Guo H.
Yuan Y.
662
Guo H.
240

Yue Yuan defeated Hanyu Guo in the first round of US Open qualifying, 6-2, 6-4. Yuan and Guo were even in aces, 2-2, but Yuan had the edge in several other categories, including first-serve win percentage and break points converted. Yuan won the match by converting 75 percent of her break points and securing three service breaks to Guo's none.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2019-10-14W100 Suzhou 1Q16hardHanyu Guo6-3 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
47%
Service points won·Even
57%
56%
Return points won·Even
43%
46%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.3
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
11
58
Break points saved·Slight edge
16
25
Break points won·Dominant
44
96
Deciding sets·Dominant
5
93
Tiebreaks·
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Yuan Y.55%
Guo H.45%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+18 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1592
5.0Overall Elo 1629
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1625
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.13 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
65
91

Yuan Y.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Guo H.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
20°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 78%

Draw