Hugo Gaston vs Guido Ivan JustoUS Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#88ATP
1622ELO
1628Hard ELO
$376kYTD
$4.0MCAREER
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWLLLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 13 · 3rd on
#229ATP
1443ELO
1307Hard ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWLW
Gaston H.
7-5 6-3
Ivan Justo G.
Gaston H.
762
Ivan Justo G.
530

Hugo Gaston defeated Guido Ivan Justo in the US Open qualifying second round. The match ended with a score of 7-5, 6-3 in favor of Gaston. Gaston served 1 ace and committed 3 double faults, while Justo had 2 aces and 2 double faults; Gaston won 85% of his first-serve points and converted 71% of break points, compared to 56% and 67% for Justo; Gaston achieved 5 service breaks to Justo's 2.

Key context

  • Match story: Hugo Gaston closed it out in two sets, 7–5 6–3.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
53%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
47%
Break points saved·Even
60%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
12
Break points saved·Dominant
87
23
Break points won·Slight edge
35
42
Deciding sets·Dominant
77
20
Tiebreaks·Dominant
82
50

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Gaston H.78%
Ivan Justo G.22%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Gaston H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
9.0+321 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.0Hard Elo 1307
7.2Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1443
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
61
92

Gaston H.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 82 games (7d) · Ivan Justo G.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw