Karl Poling vs Thomas FancuttKingston 2 Round of 32

Kingston 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#491ATP
1314ELO
1320Hard ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 1 · 1st on
#810ATP
31 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLWWLW
Poling K.
6-4 6-3
Fancutt T.
Poling K.
662
Fancutt T.
430

Thomas Fancutt defeated Karl Poling in the Round of 32 at the Kingston 2 hard-court tournament, winning 6-4, 6-3. Fancutt hit 11 aces to Poling's 2 and converted 60% of his break points, while Poling converted none. Fancutt won 87% of his first-serve points and took 3 service breaks to Poling's 0.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-13M25 East Lansing, MiR16hardKarl Poling6-3 6-7 1-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·
67%
1st serve points won·
66%
2nd serve points won·
52%
Service points won·
61%
Return points won·
41%
Break points saved·
59%
Aces / match·
1.7
Double faults / match·
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Poling K.54%
Fancutt T.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
3.34 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.26 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
93
78

Poling K.: 8 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Fancutt T.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
21°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 75%

Draw