Lorenzo Giustino vs Grigor DimitrovUS Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#201ATP
1420ELO
1426Hard ELO
$101kYTD
$1.1MCAREER
34 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Stadium 17 · 2nd on
#137ATP
1744ELO
1736Hard ELO
$329kYTD
$32MCAREER
35 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWLWWWL
Giustino L.
0-6 3-6
Dimitrov G.
Giustino L.
030
Dimitrov G.
662

Grigor Dimitrov defeated Lorenzo Giustino in the US Open qualifying first round. The match ended with Dimitrov winning 0-6, 3-6, despite being behind in each set. Dimitrov hit 3 aces and 1 double fault, and converted all 5 of his break points to secure the win.

Around the match

  • Dimitrov arrives at US Open qualifying worn down by injuries and poor form, needing to win three matches just to reach the main draw with no wild card.

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
60%
64%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
62%
50%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.8
8.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
0
86
Break points saved·Dominant
32
98
Break points won·Dominant
9
64
Deciding sets·Dominant
10
97
Tiebreaks·Dominant
10
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Giustino L.13%
Dimitrov G.87%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Dimitrov G. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.1Hard Elo 1426
Surface ELO
8.9+310 Hard Elo edge
1.0Overall Elo 1420
ELO gap
9.0Overall Elo 1744
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.53 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
79
84

Giustino L.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Dimitrov G.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw