Sofia Costoulas vs Jennifer RuggeriUS Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
#155WTA
1565ELO
1569Hard ELO
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 15 · 3rd on
#216WTA
1577ELO
1404Hard ELO
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWWL
Costoulas S.
7-5 6-4
Ruggeri J.
Costoulas S.
762
Ruggeri J.
540

Sofia Costoulas defeated Jennifer Ruggeri in the first round of US Open qualifying, 7-5, 6-4. Costoulas served more efficiently, posting a 79% first-serve win percentage to Ruggeri's 62%, and converted four service breaks to Ruggeri's two. Costoulas also committed fewer double faults, 3 to 9.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
44%
Service points won·Even
58%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
48%
Break points saved·Even
53%
51%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.3
1.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
5.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 40). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Costoulas S.62%
Ruggeri J.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Costoulas S. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.1+166 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Hard Elo 1404
4.8Overall Elo 1565
ELO gap
5.2Overall Elo 1577
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.43 of last 8 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
73
90

Costoulas S.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Ruggeri J.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 61%

Draw