Francesca Jones vs Nuria BrancaccioUS Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
#104WTA
1619ELO
1581Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 2nd on
#189WTA
1494ELO
1321Hard ELO
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWL
Jones F.
6-3 6-4
Brancaccio N.
Jones F.
662
Brancaccio N.
340

Francesca Jones defeated Nuria Brancaccio in the first round of US Open qualifying, 6-3, 6-4. Jones served 3 aces and committed 2 double faults, while Brancaccio had 4 aces and 5 double faults. Jones converted all 3 of her break points and won 3 service breaks to Brancaccio's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
74%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
59%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
43%
Service points won·Even
55%
54%
Return points won·Even
46%
46%
Break points saved·Even
55%
52%
Aces / match·Even
1.6
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
76
12
Break points saved·Dominant
80
30
Break points won·Even
96
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
70
16
Tiebreaks·Dominant
89
12

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Jones F.68%
Brancaccio N.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jones F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.3+260 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.7Hard Elo 1321
6.6Overall Elo 1619
ELO gap
3.4Overall Elo 1494
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.93 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
1.62 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
67
92

Jones F.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d) · Brancaccio N.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw