Alex Bolt vs Pablo Llamas RuizUS Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#164ATP
1588ELO
1541Hard ELO
$137kYTD
$2.2MCAREER
33 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLLWLLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 4 · 2nd on
#126ATP
1757ELO
1630Hard ELO
$268kYTD
$884kCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLLLWL
Bolt A.
6-7 5-7
Llamas Ruiz P.
Bolt A.
6350
Llamas Ruiz P.
7772

Pablo Llamas Ruiz defeated Alex Bolt in the US Open qualifying second round. The match ended with a score of 6-7, 5-7 in favor of Llamas Ruiz. Key stats included Llamas Ruiz's 100% break point conversion rate, compared to Bolt's 50%, and Llamas Ruiz's 2 service breaks to Bolt's 1.

Key context

Head to head

02
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosQ1clayPablo Llamas Ruiz4-6 6-4 7-5
2025-05-19Roland GarrosQ128clayPablo Llamas Ruiz4-6 6-4 7-5

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
63%
72%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
41%
Break points saved·Even
65%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
7.2
2.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 37). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
30
63
Break points saved·Slight edge
81
88
Break points won·Dominant
3
39
Deciding sets·Clear edge
66
79
Tiebreaks·Dominant
28
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Bolt A.30%
Llamas Ruiz P.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Llamas Ruiz P. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.9Hard Elo 1541
Surface ELO
6.1+90 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1588
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1757
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
3.84 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
90
58

Bolt A.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Llamas Ruiz P.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 53%

Draw