Otto Virtanen vs Ugo BlanchetUS Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#108ATP
1706ELO
1674Hard ELO
$214kYTD
$1.5MCAREER
25 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWLWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 ·
hard
#199ATP
1521ELO
1546Hard ELO
$119kYTD
$989kCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWLL
Virtanen O.
6-4 6-4
Blanchet U.
Virtanen O.
662
Blanchet U.
440

Otto Virtanen defeated Ugo Blanchet in the first round of US Open qualifying, 6-4, 6-4. Virtanen hit 15 aces and converted 50% of his break points, while Blanchet was unable to capitalize on any of his break point chances. Virtanen won 82% of his first-serve points and took two service breaks en route to the win.

Key context

  • Match story: Otto Virtanen edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
53%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
66%
64%
Return points won·Even
35%
34%
Break points saved·Even
66%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.3
5.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
15
34
Break points saved·Slight edge
82
89
Break points won·Clear edge
1
15
Deciding sets·Dominant
39
12
Tiebreaks·Dominant
13
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Virtanen O.67%
Blanchet U.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Virtanen O. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+128 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1546
7.3Overall Elo 1706
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1521
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
5.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R32 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
74
80

Virtanen O.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Blanchet U.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw