Stefano Napolitano vs Mackenzie McdonaldUS Open Qualifying Round of 256

US Open · ATP · Qualifying Round of 256
#228ATP
1528ELO
1456Hard ELO
31 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWLLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
Stadium 17 · 4th on
#146ATP
1606ELO
1604Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$7.2MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLLWLLW
Napolitano S.
4-6 5-7
Mcdonald M.
Napolitano S.
450
Mcdonald M.
672

Mackenzie McDonald defeated Stefano Napolitano in the US Open qualifying first round. McDonald won 4-6, 5-7. McDonald had 2 aces and 2 double faults, while Napolitano had 8 aces and 5 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
55%
Service points won·Slight edge
67%
62%
Return points won·Even
36%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Even
4.5
4.7
Double faults / match·Even
1.9
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
8
28
Break points saved·Dominant
45
87
Break points won·Dominant
36
73
Deciding sets·Clear edge
29
6
Tiebreaks·Even
13
10

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Napolitano S.34%
Mcdonald M.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mcdonald M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1456
Surface ELO
6.8+148 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1528
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1606
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.45 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.14 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
87
61

Napolitano S.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Mcdonald M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 72 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 48%

Draw