Claire Liu vs Heather Watson — US Open Qualifying Round of 128
US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 5 · 2nd on
#445WTA
1572ELO
1548Hard ELO
34 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWWWL
Liu C.6-4 2-6 4-6
Watson H.
Liu C.
6241
Watson H.
4662
Heather Watson defeated Claire Liu 4-6, 6-2, 6-4 in the first round of US Open qualifying. Watson converted 78 percent of her break points and won seven service breaks to Liu's five. Watson hit three aces and nine double faults, while Liu had six aces and three double faults.
Key context
- Match story: Heather Watson dropped the opening set before beating Claire Liu 4–6 6–2 6–4.
Head to head
1–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-04 | Charleston | R64 | clay | Claire Liu | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2018-07-30 | San Jose | R32 | hard | Heather Watson | 6-4 3-6 6-4 |
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Clear edge
69%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
71%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
42%
Service points won·Even
57%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
47%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
4.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.3
5.0
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTCLiu C.75%
Watson H.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Liu C. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
6.1+87 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO3.9Hard Elo 1548
6.2Overall Elo 1669
ELO gap3.8Overall Elo 1572
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H5.0First meeting on hard
7.88 of last 10 on hard
Surface form4.75 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak0.0Lost last 2
Context
6.0Reached the R128 here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°CClear
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 42%