Kayla Day vs Julieta Pareja — US Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
USA
Kayla Day
#117WTA
1595ELO
1576Hard ELO
26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 9 · 1st on
USA
Julieta Pareja
#284WTA
1506ELO
1452Hard ELO
17 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWWWW
Day K.
3-6 1-6
Pareja J.
Day K.
310
Pareja J.
662

Julieta Pareja defeated Kayla Day in the US Open round of 16. The match ended with a score of 3-6, 1-6 in favor of Pareja. Key stats included Pareja's 62% break point conversion rate compared to Day's 20%, and Pareja's five service breaks to Day's one.

Key context

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-08-20US OpenQ128hardJulieta Pareja7-6(5) 6-4

Statistics

This season
Day K.Pareja J.
1st serve in·Even
67%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
61%
57%
Return points won·Even
47%
45%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.4
1.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Day K.65%
Pareja J.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Day K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Day K.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Pareja J.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+124 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1452
6.1Overall Elo 1595
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1506
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
H2H
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Day K.Pareja J.
Freshness·Clear edge
92
77

Day K.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Pareja J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw