Jan Choinski vs Mees Rottgering — Winston-Salem Round of 64

Winston-Salem · ATP · Round of 64
Jan Choinski
GBR
Jan Choinski
#75ATP
1686ELO
1571Hard ELO
$265kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 2nd on
NEDQ
Mees Rottgering
#389ATP
1468ELO
1449Hard ELO
19 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLW
Choinski J.
5-7 6-2 4-6
Rottgering M.
Choinski J.
5641
Rottgering M.
7262

Mees Rottgering defeated Jan Choinski in the Round of 32 at the Winston-Salem tournament. The match ended with a score of 7-5, 2-6, 6-4 in favor of Rottgering. Both players converted 3 service breaks, with Rottgering having a higher break points converted percentage of 43 to Choinski's 25.

Key context

  • Match story: Mees Rottgering closed it out in three sets, 7–5 2–6 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Choinski J.Rottgering M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
62%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
57%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Even
60%
60%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.7
3.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.8
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Choinski J.59%
Rottgering M.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Choinski J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Choinski J.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Rottgering M.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.5+123 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.5Hard Elo 1449
7.7Overall Elo 1686
ELO gap
2.3Overall Elo 1468
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.96 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Choinski J.Rottgering M.
Freshness·Clear edge
85
67

Choinski J.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d) · Rottgering M.: 3 days rest · 5 matches, 99 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°CClear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 37%

Draw