Pablo Carreno Busta vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — Winston-Salem Round of 64

Winston-Salem · ATP · Round of 64
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP
Pablo Carreno Busta
#66ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Retired
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
STADIUM COURT · 3rd on
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
PAR
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
#61ATP
1740ELO
1520Hard ELO
$407kYTD
$665kCAREER
22 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLWWW
Carreno Busta P.
4-6 0-3
Vallejo A.
Carreno Busta P.
400
Vallejo A.
632

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo advanced to the quarterfinals of the Winston-Salem tournament with a win over Pablo Carreno Busta in the Round of 16. Carreno Busta retired during the match, trailing Vallejo 4-6, 0-3.

Around the match

  • Retired from his match against Vallejo due to physical discomfort while trailing, prioritizing caution ahead of the US Open.

    Carreno Busta P.Puntodebreak ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Carreno Busta P.Vallejo A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
52%
Service points won·Even
64%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
45%
Break points saved·Even
54%
57%
Aces / match·Even
3.1
3.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.5
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Carreno Busta P.Vallejo A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
46
53
Break points saved·Clear edge
93
71
Break points won·Slight edge
60
65
Deciding sets·Dominant
15
85
Tiebreaks·Dominant
87
0

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Carreno Busta P.62%
Vallejo A.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Carreno Busta P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Carreno Busta P.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Vallejo A.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.8+224 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.2Hard Elo 1520
5.8Overall Elo 1800
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1740
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.17 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Carreno Busta P.Vallejo A.
Freshness·Slight edge
94
85

Carreno Busta P.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 13 games (7d) · Vallejo A.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
22°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw