Clara Burel vs Ye Xin Ma — US Open Qualifying Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Qualifying Round of 128
Clara Burel
FRA
Clara Burel
#410WTA
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWWLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 16 · 1st on
CHN
Ye Xin Ma
#178WTA
1450ELO
1441Hard ELO
27 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLLWWL
Burel C.
6-4 6-2
Xin Ma Y.
Burel C.
662
Xin Ma Y.
420

Clara Burel defeated Ye Xin Ma in the first round of US Open qualifying, 6-4, 6-2. Burel converted 43% of her break points and won three service breaks to Ma's zero. Burel and Ma were even in aces (1-1) and double faults (2-2).

Around the match

  • Returning from 12-month ACL injury layoff, Burel defeats Ma Ye-Xin 6-4, 6-2 in first-round qualifying.

    Burel C.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Burel C.Xin Ma Y.
1st serve in·Even
57%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
57%
62%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
51%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
49%
44%
Break points saved·Even
55%
51%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.5
2.6
Double faults / match·Even
3.2
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Burel C.Xin Ma Y.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
49
57
Break points saved·Dominant
10
54
Break points won·Clear edge
92
80
Deciding sets·Even
75
76
Tiebreaks·
62
—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Burel C.66%
Xin Ma Y.34%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Burel C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Burel C.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Xin Ma Y.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Burel C.Xin Ma Y.
Freshness·Slight edge
85
94

Burel C.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 37 games (7d) · Xin Ma Y.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw