Ariana Arseneault vs Tereza ValentovaPhilly Open - Philadelphia Round of 32

Philly Open - Philadelphia · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#381WTA
1273ELO
1260Hard ELO
24 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Monday, 24 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 1 · 3rd on
#57WTA
1818ELO
1797Hard ELO
$684kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
19 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWLLWWW
Arseneault A.
6-7 1-6
Valentova T.
Arseneault A.
6610
Valentova T.
7862

Tereza Valentova defeated Ariana Arseneault in the Round of 32 at the Philly Open in Philadelphia. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 6-1 in favor of Valentova. Key stats included Valentova's 71% first-serve win percentage and 4 service breaks, compared to Arseneault's 54% first-serve win percentage and 2 service breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Tereza Valentova came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 6–1.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
59%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
48%
42%
Service points won·Even
57%
55%
Return points won·Even
47%
46%
Break points saved·Even
55%
56%
Aces / match·Even
2.7
2.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.6
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Arseneault A.21%
Valentova T.79%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Valentova T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
3.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
7.5
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
0.0Hard Elo 1260
Surface ELO
10.0+537 Hard Elo edge
0.0Overall Elo 1273
ELO gap
10.0Overall Elo 1818
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.46 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
5.2Won 53% in USA (32)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
88
68

Arseneault A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Valentova T.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw