Alexey Dubinin vs Matis Roche — M15 Cap d'Agde Qualifying Round of 32
M15 Cap d'Agde · ITF · Qualifying Round of 32
RUSAlexey Dubinin
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 23 August 2026 ·
clay
FRAQMatis Roche
21 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLWLLL
Dubinin A.6-7 1-6
Roche M.
Dubinin A.
6110
Roche M.
7762
Matis Roche defeated Alexey Dubinin 7-6, 6-1 in the qualifying second round of the M15 Cap d'Agde. Roche converted 83% of his break points and won 73% of his first-serve points. He secured five service breaks to Dubinin's three.
Key context
- Match story: Matis Roche came through a tight passage before pulling clear — 7–6 6–1.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
This seasonDubinin A.Roche M.
1st serve in·Clear edge
48%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
50%
61%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
42%
61%
Service points won·Clear edge
46%
61%
Return points won·Even
31%
32%
Break points saved·Clear edge
56%
71%
Aces / match·Even
0.0
0.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.0
2.0
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTCDubinin A.27%
Roche M.73%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Roche M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchDubinin A.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limitedRoche M.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limitedForm & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
6.0Hard → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 57%