Taro Daniel vs Jacob FearnleyQuebec City Quarter-final

Quebec City · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#160ATP
1567ELO
1512Hard ELO
$64kYTD
$5.1MCAREER
33 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 22 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT BANQUE NATIONALE · 4th on
#100ATP
1600ELO
1565Hard ELO
$342kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWWL
Daniel T.
6-4 6-1
Fearnley J.
Daniel T.
662
Fearnley J.
410

Taro Daniel defeated Jacob Fearnley in the quarterfinals of the Quebec City tournament, winning 6-4, 6-1 on hard courts. Daniel hit 2 aces and 1 double fault, while Fearnley hit 1 ace and 2 double faults. Daniel converted 50% of his break points and won 5 service breaks to Fearnley's 1.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
47%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
40%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.9
5.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.3
5.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
19
85
Break points saved·Clear edge
77
96
Break points won·Dominant
34
70
Deciding sets·Dominant
7
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
53
83

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Daniel T.29%
Fearnley J.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fearnley J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1512
Surface ELO
5.7+53 Hard Elo edge
4.6Overall Elo 1567
ELO gap
5.4Overall Elo 1600
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.38 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on hard
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
69
54

Daniel T.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Fearnley J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 85 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
21°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 56%

Draw