Roman Safiullin vs Hubert HurkaczCancun 2 Quarter-final

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#98ATP
1750ELO
1704Hard ELO
$199kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 21 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 1 · 1st on
#46ATP
1798ELO
1727Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWL
Safiullin R.
4-6 3-6
Hurkacz H.
Safiullin R.
430
Hurkacz H.
662

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Roman Safiullin in the quarterfinals of the Cancun 2 tournament, winning 6-4, 6-3 on hard courts. Hurkacz hit 7 aces to Safiullin's 4 and converted 50% of his break points, compared to 0% for Safiullin. Hurkacz secured 2 service breaks to Safiullin's 0 en route to the victory.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
51%
Service points won·Even
66%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.9
14.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.8
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
17
67
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
99
Break points won·Even
18
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
17
92
Tiebreaks·Dominant
13
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Safiullin R.38%
Hurkacz H.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Hurkacz H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1704
Surface ELO
5.3+23 Hard Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 1750
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 1798
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
4.84 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.74 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
77
75

Safiullin R.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Hurkacz H.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
26°CClear
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw