N. Toffanin vs Gabriele Maria NoceM15 Mistelbach Round of 16

M15 Mistelbach · ITF · Round of 16
#1201ATP
23 yrs
Last 10
WLLLLLLLWL
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
clay
#826ATP
30 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
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Toffanin N.
vs
Maria Noce G.

N. Toffanin faces Gabriele Maria Noce in the M15 Mistelbach round of 16 on clay. Gabriele Maria Noce holds the paper edge — ranked #826.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Toffanin N.43%
Maria Noce G.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
0.91 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0Lost last 5
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

5 vs 6 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
69%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
54%
66%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
41%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
50%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
38%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.8
1.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 6). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Toffanin N.serving47% hold

wins 49% of points on serve vs Maria Noce G.

Maria Noce G.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Toffanin N.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
95

Maria Noce G.: 10 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
32°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 35%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw