Henrique Rocha vs Hubert Hurkacz — Cancun 2 Round of 16

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
POR
Henrique Rocha
#119ATP
1676ELO
1574Hard ELO
$199kYTD
$883kCAREER
22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWLLLLL
1 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 20 August 2026 ·
hard
ESTADIO FUNO · 1st on
Hubert Hurkacz
POL3
Hubert Hurkacz
#46ATP
1798ELO
1727Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$20MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLWWL
Rocha H.
2-6 6-4 4-6
Hurkacz H.
Rocha H.
2641
Hurkacz H.
6462

Hubert Hurkacz defeated Henrique Rocha in the Round of 16 at the Cancun 2 tournament, winning 6-2, 4-6, 6-4 on hard courts. Hurkacz served 12 aces to Rocha's 4 and had a 72% first-serve win percentage, compared to Rocha's 63%. Hurkacz converted 36% of break points and won 4 service breaks to Rocha's 2.

Key context

  • Match story: Hubert Hurkacz closed it out in three sets, 6–2 4–6 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Rocha H.Hurkacz H.
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
51%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
69%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
57%
69%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.5
14.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.4
2.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Rocha H.Hurkacz H.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
45
67
Break points saved·Dominant
67
99
Break points won·Slight edge
25
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
57
92
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
86
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Rocha H.29%
Hurkacz H.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Hurkacz H. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Rocha H.
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Hurkacz H.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1574
Surface ELO
6.9+152 Hard Elo edge
3.5Overall Elo 1676
ELO gap
6.5Overall Elo 1798
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.44 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
3.53 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Rocha H.Hurkacz H.
Freshness·Slight edge
68
75

Rocha H.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Hurkacz H.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
26°CMainly clear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 82%

Draw