Arthur Fils vs Alex De Minaur — Cincinnati Round of 16

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 16
Arthur Fils
FRA21
Arthur Fils
#21ATP
2001ELO
1930Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$7.9MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWWWLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
Court 2 · 3rd on
Alex De Minaur
AUS5
Alex De Minaur
#8ATP
1961ELO
1935Hard ELO
$2.4MYTD
$25MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLWWLWW
Fils A.
6-3 6-4
De Minaur A.
Fils A.
662
De Minaur A.
340

Arthur Fils defeated Alex De Minaur 6-3, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the Cincinnati tournament. Fils converted 22% of his break points and won 80% of his first-serve points, while De Minaur did not convert any of his break points. Fils secured two service breaks to De Minaur's zero, and the match saw Fils hit two aces and two double faults, compared to De Minaur's four aces and three double faults.

Around the match

  • “You never want to go into a rain delay leading 5-1. It was a tough day with all the interruptions. I'm happy with how I found a way.”

    De Minaur A.Al Jazeera ↗

  • Fils has returned to competition following an extended absence from early 2025, showing strong form with wins over top opponents and displaying notable confidence heading into his Cincinnati quarterfinal.

    Fils A.The Grandstand ↗

  • Fils showing strong momentum with a 5-1 record in his last six matches after dealing with injuries earlier in the year.

    Fils A.lastwordonsports.com ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

  • Match story: Arthur Fils closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

1–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-02-09RotterdamR32hardAlex De Minaur7-6 6-2
2024-07-01WimbledonR16grassAlex De Minaur6-2 6-4 4-6 6-3
2024-04-15BarcelonaR16clayArthur Fils7-5 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Fils A.De Minaur A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
57%
55%
Service points won·Even
68%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
41%
Break points saved·Even
67%
69%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.8
4.1
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Fils A.De Minaur A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
81
94
Break points saved·Even
96
98
Break points won·Dominant
54
97
Deciding sets·Even
98
95
Tiebreaks·Even
97
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Fils A.63%
De Minaur A.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Fils A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fils A.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
De Minaur A.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Hard Elo 1930
Surface ELO
5.1+6 Hard Elo edge
5.5Overall Elo 2001
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1961
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
7.37 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.46 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Fils A.De Minaur A.
Freshness·Slight edge
60
66

Fils A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 68 games (7d) · De Minaur A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
25°COvercast
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 90%

Draw