Gauthier Onclin vs Alejandro Moro CanasCancun 2 Q8

Cancun 2 · CHALLENGER · Q8
#169ATP
1567ELO
1552Hard ELO
$100kYTD
$617kCAREER
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWWLLW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
GRAND STAND SCOTIABANK · 2nd on
#240ATP
1526ELO
1519Hard ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLWWL
Onclin G.
6-4 5-7 6-4
Moro Canas A.
Onclin G.
6562
Moro Canas A.
4741

Gauthier Onclin defeated Alejandro Moro Canas in the eighth qualifying match at the Cancun 2 hard-court tournament. Onclin won the match 6-4, 5-7, 6-4. In the match, Onclin hit two aces and committed two double faults, while Moro Canas had 12 aces and one double fault; Onclin converted 71 percent of his break points and Moro Canas converted 40 percent.

Key context

  • Match story: Gauthier Onclin edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 5–7 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
56%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Even
60%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
46
24
Break points saved·Even
79
82
Break points won·Clear edge
17
35
Deciding sets·Dominant
74
20
Tiebreaks·Dominant
50
7

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Onclin G.61%
Moro Canas A.39%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Onclin G. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+33 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1519
5.5Overall Elo 1567
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1526
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.69 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
55
60

Onclin G.: played today · 4 matches, 97 games (7d) · Moro Canas A.: played today · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 84%

Draw