Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Felix Auger AliassimeCincinnati Round of 32

Cincinnati · ATP · Round of 32
#45ATP
1790ELO
1658Hard ELO
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 ·
hard
GRANDSTAND · 3rd on
#4ATP
1958ELO
1932Hard ELO
26 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLWWWWL
Cerundolo J.
5-7 1-6
Auger Aliassime F.
Cerundolo J.
510
Auger Aliassime F.
762

Felix Auger Aliassime defeated Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Round of 32 at the Cincinnati tournament. The match ended with a score of 7-5, 6-1 in favor of Auger Aliassime.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • Auger-Aliassime secured a notable comeback victory after a 40-day absence from competition.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

    Auger Aliassime F.ATP Tour
  • Made an encouraging return from a 40-day injury layoff, defeating Tsitsipas in straight sets after withdrawing from Montreal with a back issue.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

    Auger Aliassime F.Perfect Tennis

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR64clayJuan Manuel Cerundolo7-6 6-4

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
79%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
63%
70%
Return points won·Even
37%
36%
Break points saved·Even
63%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.7
10.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 43). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
78
75
Break points saved·Clear edge
82
99
Break points won·Dominant
73
31
Deciding sets·Even
94
98
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
84
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Cerundolo J.25%
Auger Aliassime F.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Auger Aliassime F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
1.6Hard Elo 1658
Surface ELO
8.4+275 Hard Elo edge
2.9Overall Elo 1790
ELO gap
7.1Overall Elo 1958
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.75 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
84
79

Cerundolo J.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 42 games (7d) · Auger Aliassime F.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 44%

Draw