R. Leal vs Tiago Pereira — M25 Idanha-A-Nova Round of 32

M25 Idanha-A-Nova · ITF · Round of 32
POR
R. Leal
#1656ATP
Last 10
LWWWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
POR4
Tiago Pereira
#389ATP
1179ELO
1142Hard ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWWLLW
Leal R.
vs
Pereira T.

R. Leal faces Tiago Pereira in the M25 Idanha-A-Nova round of 32 on hard. Tiago Pereira is the paper favourite — ranked #389 — but R. Leal arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Tiago Pereira's 2.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Leal R.12%
Pereira T.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Pereira T. heavily favoured

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: R. Leal 3 of 4, Tiago Pereira 2 of 4 on hard recently — R. Leal the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Tiago Pereira carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Leal R.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Pereira T.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
4.44 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

6 vs 17 matches

Statistics

This season
Leal R.Pereira T.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
56%
Return points won·Even
40%
39%
Break points saved·Even
48%
48%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.2
2.4
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.0
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Leal R.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Pereira T.

Pereira T.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Leal R.

Serve advantage — Leal R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Leal R.Pereira T.
Freshness·
—
89

Pereira T.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
33°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 28%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw