Yue Yuan vs Kayla Day — Cincinnati Q32

Cincinnati · WTA · Q32
CHN
Yue Yuan
#126WTA
1629ELO
1610Hard ELO
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLLLWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
hard
USAQ
Kayla Day
#121WTA
1595ELO
1576Hard ELO
26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLLWW
Yuan Y.
2-6 7-5 6-3
Day K.
Yuan Y.
2762
Day K.
6531

Kayla Day defeated Yue Yuan in the qualifying second round of the Cincinnati hard-court tournament, 2-6, 7-5, 6-3. Day served 13 aces and converted 50 percent of her break points to advance. The match featured four service breaks for each player.

Key context

  • Match story: Kayla Day closed it out in three sets, 6–2 5–7 3–6.

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-01AucklandR32hardYue Yuan7-6 6-7 6-1
2022-10-25W80 TylerR32hardYue Yuan6-4 3-6 6-2

Statistics

This season
Yuan Y.Day K.
1st serve in·Even
65%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
48%
Service points won·Even
57%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
59%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.3
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (43 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Yuan Y.Day K.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
11
39
Break points saved·Dominant
16
66
Break points won·Dominant
44
88
Deciding sets·Clear edge
6
18
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
75
67

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Yuan Y.36%
Day K.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Day K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Yuan Y.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Day K.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+34 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Hard Elo 1576
5.4Overall Elo 1629
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1595
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
3.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.2Won 71% in Usa (34)
Country comfort
5.9Won 66% in Usa (200)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Yuan Y.Day K.
Freshness·Clear edge
88
70

Yuan Y.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Day K.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 88%

Draw