Raul Brancaccio vs Marvin Moeller — Hamburg Round of 16

Hamburg · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Raul Brancaccio
ITA8
Raul Brancaccio
#232ATP
1492ELO
1465Clay ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLLLWWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 12 August 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
Marvin Moeller
GERALT
Marvin Moeller
#327ATP
1396ELO
1383Clay ELO
27 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWW
Brancaccio R.
7-5 6-7 6-7
Moeller M.
Brancaccio R.
7661
Moeller M.
5772

Marvin Moeller advanced to the quarterfinals of the Hamburg tournament with a three-set win over Raul Brancaccio in the Round of 16. Moeller took the match 5-7, 7-6, 7-6.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Brancaccio R.Moeller M.
1st serve in·Even
61%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
53%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
65%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.1
4.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.0
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Brancaccio R.Moeller M.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
11
48
Break points saved·Slight edge
49
43
Break points won·Dominant
19
44
Deciding sets·Dominant
9
73
Tiebreaks·Dominant
51
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Brancaccio R.34%
Moeller M.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Moeller M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Brancaccio R.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Moeller M.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+82 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Clay Elo 1383
6.2Overall Elo 1492
ELO gap
3.8Overall Elo 1396
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
4.95 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
8.08 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Brancaccio R.Moeller M.
Freshness·Dominant
84
52

Brancaccio R.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 38 games (7d) · Moeller M.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 126 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
21°CMainly clear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 41%

Draw