Hikaru Sato vs Julia Avdeeva — W35 Aldershot 2 Round of 16

W35 Aldershot 2 · ITF · Round of 16

JPN

Hikaru Sato

#473WTA

27 yrs · 174 cm

Last 10

WLWLWLWWWL

—

Sets

Wednesday, 12 August 2026 · 10:00

hard

RUS2

Julia Avdeeva

#188WTA

1515ELO

1490Hard ELO

24 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLLWWWLL

Sato H.

Avdeeva J.

Hikaru Sato faces Julia Avdeeva in the W35 Aldershot 2 round of 16 on hard. Julia Avdeeva holds the paper edge — ranked #188.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC

Sato H.34%

Avdeeva J.66%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Avdeeva J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Hikaru Sato dropped the opening set before beating Indianna Spink 4–6 6–3 7–5.
Last match: Julia Avdeeva dropped just 6 games past Clara Vlasselaer.
Fatigue load: Hikaru Sato carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Sato H.

4.8

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Avdeeva J.

4.6

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.96 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.16 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 6

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season

Sato H.Avdeeva J.

1st serve in·Even

58%

60%

1st serve points won·Even

66%

70%

2nd serve points won·Even

46%

Service points won·Even

58%

61%

Return points won·Even

43%

42%

Break points saved·Even

57%

61%

Aces / match·Dominant

3.7

7.4

Double faults / match·Dominant

3.3

5.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Sato H.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Avdeeva J.

Avdeeva J.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Sato H.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Sato H.Avdeeva J.

Freshness·

—

Avdeeva J.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

23°CClear

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.