Axel Nefve vs Alexander Petrov — M25 East Lansing Q16

M25 East Lansing · ITF · Q16
USA
Axel Nefve
#994ATP
26 yrs · 193 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLWWLW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 11 August 2026 ·
hard
BUL
Alexander Petrov
#1610ATP
24 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWLWL
Nefve A.
vs
Petrov A.

Axel Nefve faces Alexander Petrov in the M25 East Lansing q16 on hard. Axel Nefve is the paper favourite — ranked #994 — but Alexander Petrov arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on hard to Axel Nefve's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Nefve A.51%
Petrov A.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: Axel Nefve 4 of 7, Alexander Petrov 5 of 7 on hard recently — Alexander Petrov the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Axel Nefve carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Nefve A.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Petrov A.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.43 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
5.2Won 53% in Usa (104)
Country comfort
5.6Won 60% in Usa (86)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

5 vs 1 matches

Statistics

This season
Nefve A.Petrov A.
1st serve in·Even
61%
64%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
68%
53%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
42%
61%
Service points won·Even
57%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
42%
34%
Break points saved·Clear edge
57%
44%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
8.4
4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 1). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Nefve A.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Petrov A.

Petrov A.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Nefve A.

Serve advantage — Nefve A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
27°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 63%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw