Learner Tien vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Montreal Round of 16

Montreal · ATP · Round of 16
Learner Tien
USA12
Learner Tien
#19ATP
1941ELO
1904Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.4MCAREER
20 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLLWWLLWL
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
hard
Thiago Agustin Tirante
ARG
Thiago Agustin Tirante
#65ATP
1741ELO
1636Hard ELO
$730kYTD
$2.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLLWL
Tien L.
vs
Tirante T.

Learner Tien faces Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Montreal round of 16 on hard. Learner Tien is the paper favourite — ranked #19, a roughly 270-point hard Elo advantage — but Thiago Agustin Tirante rides a 5-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Tien L.73%
Tirante T.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tien L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
10 common opponents · Tien L. 10–5 · Tirante T. 8–5
Tien L. better · different surfaces (Hard × Clay) · ⚠ retirement-shortened match▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Tien L.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Tirante T.
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.4+268 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.6Hard Elo 1636
7.5Overall Elo 1941
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1741
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.76 of last 10 on hard
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10
Opponent rise

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Tien L.Tirante T.
1st serve in·Even
61%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
53%
Service points won·Even
63%
65%
Return points won·Even
39%
36%
Break points saved·Even
60%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.7
8.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Tien L.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Tirante T.

Tirante T.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Tien L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Tien L.Tirante T.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
92
35
Break points saved·Clear edge
92
74
Break points won·Dominant
88
14
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
85
Tiebreaks·Dominant
99
8

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Tien L.Tirante T.
Freshness·Slight edge
71
66

Tien L.: played today · 2 matches, 41 games (7d) · Tirante T.: played today · 3 matches, 69 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
20°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 75%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw