Andre Ilagan vs Andres Martin — Brownsburg Round of 32

Brownsburg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
USA
Andre Ilagan
#243ATP
1543ELO
1518Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLLLW
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
hard
Andres Martin
USAWC
Andres Martin
#340ATP
1337ELO
1332Hard ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLLWWW
Ilagan A.
vs
Martin A.

Andre Ilagan faces Andres Martin in the Brownsburg round of 32 on hard. Andre Ilagan holds the paper edge — ranked #243, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Ilagan A.59%
Martin A.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Ilagan A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Workload contrast: Andre Ilagan 116 games in 14 days, Andres Martin 220.
  • Win streak: Andre Ilagan arrives on a 4-match winning run.
  • Surface form: Both 5 of 7 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ilagan A.
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Martin A.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.3+187 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.7Hard Elo 1332
7.6Overall Elo 1543
ELO gap
2.4Overall Elo 1337
4.8Split 1–1 on hard
H2H
5.2Split 1–1 on hard
6.25 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
5.7Won 61% in Usa (49)
Country comfort
6.2Won 70% in Usa (57)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season
Ilagan A.Martin A.
1st serve in·Even
67%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.2
2.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Ilagan A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Martin A.

Martin A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Ilagan A.

Serve advantage — Ilagan A.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Ilagan A.Martin A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
37
26
Break points saved·Clear edge
76
60
Break points won·Even
17
14
Deciding sets·Clear edge
71
50
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
14
33

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Ilagan A.Martin A.
Freshness·Slight edge
60
51

Ilagan A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 94 games (7d) · Martin A.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 112 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
26°CPartly cloudy
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 75%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw