Max Houkes vs Sumit Nagal — Hamburg Round of 32

Hamburg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
NED
Max Houkes
#242ATP
1460ELO
1444Clay ELO
26 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWLWWL
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
clay
Sumit Nagal
IND7
Sumit Nagal
#235ATP
1543ELO
1538Clay ELO
28 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLWWLW
Houkes M.
vs
Nagal S.

Max Houkes faces Sumit Nagal in the Hamburg round of 32 on clay. Sumit Nagal holds the paper edge — ranked #235, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Houkes M.52%
Nagal S.48%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Workload contrast: Max Houkes 77 games in 14 days, Sumit Nagal 77.
  • Surface form: Both 5 of 9 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Houkes M.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Nagal S.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Clay Elo 1444
Surface ELO
6.2+94 Clay Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1460
ELO gap
6.0Overall Elo 1543
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
3.94 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

25 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
Houkes M.Nagal S.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
71%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
50%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Even
40%
40%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.8
2.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.6
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Houkes M.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Nagal S.

Nagal S.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Houkes M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Houkes M.Nagal S.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
23
12
Break points saved·Slight edge
66
74
Break points won·Clear edge
29
5
Deciding sets·Dominant
34
3
Tiebreaks·Dominant
16
77

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Houkes M.Nagal S.
Freshness·Clear edge
77
89

Houkes M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Nagal S.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
19°CRain
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw