Rafael Jodar vs Arthur Fils — Montreal Quarter-final

Montreal · ATP · Quarter-final
Rafael Jodar
ESP20
Rafael Jodar
#15ATP
1999ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$1.9MCAREER
19 yrs · 191 cm
Last 10
WWWLWWWWLW
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Fils
FRA18
Arthur Fils
#24ATP
2001ELO
1930Hard ELO
$1.9MYTD
$7.9MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWLLWW
Jodar R.
vs
Fils A.

Rafael Jodar faces Arthur Fils in the Montreal quarter-final on hard. Rafael Jodar holds the paper edge — ranked #15. Recent hard form is closely matched. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Rafael Jodar ahead 1–0 on hard.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Jodar R.37%
Fils A.63%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Fils A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
9 common opponents · Jodar R. 6–5 · Fils A. 7–4
Both lost · same surface, 0 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Jodar R.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Fils A.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.3Hard Elo 1873
Surface ELO
5.7+57 Hard Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1999
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 2001
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
8.99 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

45 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Jodar R.Fils A.
1st serve in·Even
64%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
54%
57%
Service points won·Even
65%
68%
Return points won·Slight edge
41%
35%
Break points saved·Slight edge
62%
67%
Aces / match·Even
4.5
4.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (45 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Jodar R.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Fils A.

Fils A.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Jodar R.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Jodar R.Fils A.
Clutch Rating·Even
86
82
Break points saved·Slight edge
91
96
Break points won·Clear edge
71
54
Deciding sets·Even
100
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Jodar R.Fils A.
Freshness·Clear edge
52
66

Jodar R.: played today · 5 matches, 119 games (7d) · Fils A.: played today · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-07-28WashingtonR32hardRafael Jodar6-7(5) 3-6
2026-04-13BarcelonaSFclayArthur Fils3-6 6-3 6-2

Draw