Marco Cecchinato vs Nick Hardt — Todi Round of 32

Todi · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Marco Cecchinato
ITA3
Marco Cecchinato
#170ATP
1576ELO
1546Clay ELO
$167kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLWWWW
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
clay
Nick Hardt
DOM
Nick Hardt
#273ATP
1473ELO
1460Clay ELO
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWWWWL
Cecchinato M.
vs
Hardt N.

Marco Cecchinato faces Nick Hardt in the Todi round of 32 on clay. Marco Cecchinato holds the paper edge — ranked #170, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Cecchinato M.60%
Hardt N.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Cecchinato M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Marco Cecchinato carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 7 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cecchinato M.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Hardt N.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+86 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Clay Elo 1460
6.3Overall Elo 1576
ELO gap
3.7Overall Elo 1473
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.37 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.67 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 9 matches

Statistics

This season
Cecchinato M.Hardt N.
1st serve in·Even
64%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
37%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.0
0.9
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.1
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 9). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cecchinato M.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Hardt N.

Hardt N.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Cecchinato M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Cecchinato M.Hardt N.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
38
26
Break points saved·Dominant
79
33
Break points won·Clear edge
13
32
Deciding sets·Even
58
55
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
72
48

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Cecchinato M.Hardt N.
Freshness·
94
—

Cecchinato M.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
29°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 47%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw