Ugo Blanchet vs Rei Sakamoto — Brownsburg Round of 32

Brownsburg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
FRA
Ugo Blanchet
#190ATP
1521ELO
1546Hard ELO
$119kYTD
$989kCAREER
27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLLWWLL
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
hard
JPN3
Rei Sakamoto
#165ATP
1608ELO
1589Hard ELO
$235kYTD
$494kCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWLWWLL
Blanchet U.
vs
Sakamoto R.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Blanchet U.31%
Sakamoto R.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sakamoto R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Blanchet U. 1–0 · Sakamoto R. 0–1 · small sample
Mixed · hard to compare — different surfaces (Hard × Grass) · 10 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Blanchet U.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Sakamoto R.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Hard Elo 1546
Surface ELO
5.5+43 Hard Elo edge
3.9Overall Elo 1521
ELO gap
6.1Overall Elo 1608
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
5.1Won 52% in Usa (27)
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

25 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
Blanchet U.Sakamoto R.
1st serve in·Slight edge
53%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Even
34%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
5.6
6.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.6
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Blanchet U.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Sakamoto R.

Sakamoto R.serving90% hold

wins 70% of points on serve vs Blanchet U.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Blanchet U.Sakamoto R.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
34
49
Break points saved·Even
89
87
Break points won·Slight edge
15
8
Deciding sets·Dominant
12
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
93
23

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Blanchet U.Sakamoto R.
Freshness·
—
65

Sakamoto R.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 79 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
26°CPartly cloudy
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 75%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw