Joel Schwaerzler vs Andres Andrade — Brownsburg Round of 32

Brownsburg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
AUT
Joel Schwaerzler
#182ATP
1577ELO
1519Hard ELO
$102kYTD
$301kCAREER
20 yrs · 188 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWLLLL
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
hard
ECUALT
Andres Andrade
#251ATP
1505ELO
1427Hard ELO
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLLLLLW
Schwaerzler J.
vs
Andrade A.

Joel Schwaerzler faces Andres Andrade in the Brownsburg round of 32 on hard. Joel Schwaerzler holds the paper edge — ranked #182, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Schwaerzler J.60%
Andrade A.40%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Schwaerzler J. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Schwaerzler J.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Andrade A.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.2+93 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.8Hard Elo 1427
5.9Overall Elo 1577
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1505
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
9.09 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.35 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
6.2Won 70% in Usa (71)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

35 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
Schwaerzler J.Andrade A.
1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
59%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.5
2.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.7
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Schwaerzler J.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Andrade A.

Andrade A.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Schwaerzler J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Schwaerzler J.Andrade A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
55
44
Break points saved·Dominant
89
53
Break points won·Dominant
4
50
Deciding sets·Dominant
83
45
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
77
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Schwaerzler J.Andrade A.
Freshness·Dominant
48
88

Schwaerzler J.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 106 games (7d) · Andrade A.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
26°CPartly cloudy
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 75%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw