Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Elina Svitolina — Toronto Quarter-final

Toronto · WTA · Quarter-final
Ekaterina Alexandrova
RUS16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
#19WTA
1844ELO
1800Hard ELO
$1.0MYTD
$11MCAREER
31 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWWLWW
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
hard
Elina Svitolina
UKR9
Elina Svitolina
#10WTA
2070ELO
1997Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$30MCAREER
31 yrs · 174 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWLLWLW
Alexandrova E.
vs
Svitolina E.

Ekaterina Alexandrova faces Elina Svitolina in the Toronto quarter-final on hard. Elina Svitolina holds the paper edge — ranked #10, leading the head-to-head 3–1, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Alexandrova E.22%
Svitolina E.78%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Svitolina E. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
16 common opponents · Alexandrova E. 11–12 · Svitolina E. 13–7
Alexandrova E. better · different surfaces (Grass × Hard)▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Alexandrova E.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Svitolina E.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.5Hard Elo 1800
Surface ELO
7.5+198 Hard Elo edge
2.2Overall Elo 1844
ELO gap
7.8Overall Elo 2070
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.04 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.08 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

26 vs 42 matches

Statistics

This season
Alexandrova E.Svitolina E.
1st serve in·Even
59%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
48%
Service points won·Even
57%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
46%
Break points saved·Clear edge
51%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.4
3.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.0
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 42). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Alexandrova E.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Svitolina E.

Svitolina E.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Alexandrova E.

Serve advantage — Svitolina E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Alexandrova E.Svitolina E.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
91
Break points saved·Clear edge
70
83
Break points won·Even
95
99
Deciding sets·Dominant
59
98
Tiebreaks·Dominant
19
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Alexandrova E.Svitolina E.
Freshness·Slight edge
56
63

Alexandrova E.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 83 games (7d) · Svitolina E.: played today · 3 matches, 68 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

1–3
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-06-14BerlinR16grassEkaterina Alexandrova6-4 7-5
2021-03-22MiamiR32hardElina Svitolina7-6 6-4
2021-01-06Abu DhabiR16hardElina Svitolina6-2 6-7 7-6
2020-09-28Roland GarrosR32clayElina Svitolina6-4 7-5
View full head-to-head →

Draw