Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Learner Tien — Montreal Quarter-final

Montreal · ATP · Quarter-final
ESP
Daniel Merida Aguilar
#63ATP
1744ELO
1676Hard ELO
21 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWLWWWWW
—
Sets
Monday, 10 August 2026 ·
hard
Learner Tien
USA12
Learner Tien
#19ATP
1941ELO
1904Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.4MCAREER
20 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWLLWWLLW
Merida Aguilar D.
vs
Tien L.

Daniel Merida Aguilar faces Learner Tien in the Montreal quarter-final on hard. Learner Tien is the paper favourite — ranked #19, a roughly 230-point hard Elo advantage — but Daniel Merida Aguilar arrives in form, winning all 4 of their last hard matches to Learner Tien's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 04:50 UTC
Merida Aguilar D.28%
Tien L.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Tien L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
12 common opponents · Merida Aguilar D. 8–6 · Tien L. 11–5
Tien L. better · different surfaces (Grass × Hard) · ⚠ retirement-shortened match▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Merida Aguilar D.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Tien L.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
2.1Hard Elo 1676
Surface ELO
7.9+229 Hard Elo edge
2.5Overall Elo 1744
ELO gap
7.5Overall Elo 1941
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.07 of last 10 on hard
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year
Opponent rise
5.0Opponent hot: 9 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

38 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Merida Aguilar D.Tien L.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
39%
Break points saved·Even
56%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.3
7.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.6
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (38 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Merida Aguilar D.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Tien L.

Tien L.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Merida Aguilar D.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Merida Aguilar D.Tien L.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
55
92
Break points saved·Dominant
64
92
Break points won·Dominant
46
88
Deciding sets·Clear edge
87
99
Tiebreaks·Dominant
49
100

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Merida Aguilar D.Tien L.
Freshness·Slight edge
63
68

Merida Aguilar D.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 93 games (7d) · Tien L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 68%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw