Denis Yevseyev vs Noel Larwig

Hamburg · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final

KAZ5

Denis Yevseyev

#439ATP

1375ELO

1341Clay ELO

33 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWLLLWLWL

—

Sets

Sunday, 9 August 2026 · 15:00

clay

GERWC

Noel Larwig

#1260ATP

24 yrs

Last 10

LWLWLLLLLL

Yevseyev D.

Larwig N.

Denis Yevseyev faces Noel Larwig in the Hamburg qualifying semi-final on clay. Denis Yevseyev holds the paper edge — ranked #439. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC

Yevseyev D.59%

Larwig N.41%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Yevseyev D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Fatigue load: Denis Yevseyev carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Both 2 of 7 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Yevseyev D.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Larwig N.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

2.73 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

0.0Lost last 2

Win streak

0.0Lost last 3

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

6.0Hard → Clay

Surface transition

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

29 vs 4 matches

Statistics

This season

Yevseyev D.Larwig N.

1st serve in·Slight edge

69%

62%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

63%

58%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

44%

Service points won·Slight edge

58%

53%

Return points won·Slight edge

42%

37%

Break points saved·Clear edge

54%

39%

Aces / match·Slight edge

2.4

1.5

Double faults / match·Dominant

2.0

4.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Yevseyev D.serving68% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Larwig N.

Larwig N.serving52% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Yevseyev D.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Yevseyev D.Larwig N.

Freshness·

—

Yevseyev D.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

29°CClear

Wind 10 km/hHumidity 39%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Denis Yevseyev vs Noel Larwig — Hamburg Qualifying Semi-final