Colin Sinclair vs Alibek Kachmazov — Astana Qualifying Semi-final

Astana · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
NMI1
Colin Sinclair
#503ATP
31 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWLWWWWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
hard
COURT 1 · 4th on
RUSALT
Alibek Kachmazov
#822ATP
1490ELO
1467Hard ELO
23 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLLLLLW
Sinclair C.
vs
Kachmazov A.

Colin Sinclair faces Alibek Kachmazov in the Astana qualifying semi-final on hard. Colin Sinclair holds the paper edge — ranked #503.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Sinclair C.29%
Kachmazov A.71%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Kachmazov A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Alibek Kachmazov has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 49 vs 17).
  • Surface form: Colin Sinclair 6 of 10, Alibek Kachmazov 2 of 10 on hard recently — Colin Sinclair the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sinclair C.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Kachmazov A.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.66 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.81 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 6
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

7 vs 3 matches

Statistics

This season
Sinclair C.Kachmazov A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
66%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
62%
45%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
31%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
61%
41%
Aces / match·Clear edge
7.7
5.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.1
2.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 3). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sinclair C.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Kachmazov A.

Kachmazov A.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Sinclair C.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sinclair C.Kachmazov A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
17
49
Break points saved·Slight edge
75
82
Break points won·Slight edge
11
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
27
61
Tiebreaks·Dominant
7
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sinclair C.Kachmazov A.
Freshness·
83
—

Sinclair C.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CClear
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 29%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw