Alexandra Eala vs Belinda Bencic — Toronto Round of 16

Toronto · WTA · Round of 16
Alexandra Eala
PHI25
Alexandra Eala
#28WTA
1895ELO
1833Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$2.6MCAREER
21 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWW
—
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
hard
Belinda Bencic
SUI12
Belinda Bencic
#14WTA
1989ELO
1952Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$17MCAREER
29 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWLWWW
Eala A.
vs
Bencic B.

Alexandra Eala faces Belinda Bencic in the Toronto round of 16 on hard. Belinda Bencic is the paper favourite — ranked #14, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage — but Alexandra Eala rides a 6-match win streak.

Around the match

  • “I felt very frustrated in the first set, but I'm happy that I never gave up and I think that's the most important.”

    Bencic B.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Eala A.44%
Bencic B.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
19 common opponents · Eala A. 19–8 · Bencic B. 16–10
Eala A. better · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Eala A.
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Bencic B.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.5Hard Elo 1832
Surface ELO
6.5+120 Hard Elo edge
3.8Overall Elo 1895
ELO gap
6.2Overall Elo 1989
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
8.58 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.18 of last 10 on hard
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

44 vs 32 matches

Statistics

This season
Eala A.Bencic B.
1st serve in·Even
64%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
62%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
58%
61%
Return points won·Even
45%
47%
Break points saved·Even
56%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.1
1.8
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.5
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (44 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Eala A.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Bencic B.

Bencic B.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Eala A.

Serve advantage — Bencic B.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Eala A.Bencic B.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
77
90
Break points saved·Slight edge
75
83
Break points won·Even
97
96
Deciding sets·Clear edge
82
96
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
97

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Eala A.Bencic B.
Freshness·Dominant
63
92

Eala A.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 69 games (7d) · Bencic B.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CClear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 62%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw