Niklas Guttau vs Nikolai Barsukov — Hamburg Qualifying Semi-final

Hamburg · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
GERWC
Niklas Guttau
#1218ATP
26 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
clay
M1 · 3rd on
GER12
Nikolai Barsukov
#728ATP
19 yrs
Last 10
LWLWWLWWLW
Guttau N.
vs
Barsukov N.

Niklas Guttau faces Nikolai Barsukov in the Hamburg qualifying semi-final on clay. Nikolai Barsukov holds the paper edge — ranked #728. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Guttau N.47%
Barsukov N.53%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Nikolai Barsukov carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 6 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Guttau N.
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Barsukov N.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.01 of last 9 on clay
Surface form
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

7 vs 11 matches

Statistics

This season
Guttau N.Barsukov N.
1st serve in·Slight edge
68%
58%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
61%
74%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
57%
46%
Service points won·Even
60%
62%
Return points won·Even
43%
39%
Break points saved·Even
55%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.4
5.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Guttau N.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Barsukov N.

Barsukov N.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Guttau N.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Guttau N.Barsukov N.
Freshness·
—
86

Barsukov N.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
26°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 45%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw