Boris Arias vs Ergi Kirkin — Hamburg Qualifying Semi-final

Hamburg · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final

BOLALT

Boris Arias

#1234ATP

32 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LLWWLLWLWL

—

Sets

Sunday, 9 August 2026 · 12:00

clay

M5 · 2nd on

TUR8

Ergi Kirkin

#608ATP

27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWLLWLLLW

Arias B.

Kirkin E.

Boris Arias faces Ergi Kirkin in the Hamburg qualifying semi-final on clay. Ergi Kirkin is the paper favourite — ranked #608 — but Boris Arias arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 4 on clay to Ergi Kirkin's 1.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC

Arias B.12%

Kirkin E.88%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Kirkin E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Fatigue load: Ergi Kirkin carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Boris Arias 2 of 4, Ergi Kirkin 1 of 4 on clay recently — Boris Arias the sharper of late.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

No common opponents in the last 12 months.

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Arias B.

5.2

Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Kirkin E.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

3.74 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

4.25 of last 10 on clay

0.0Lost last 3

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Surface transition

6.0Hard → Clay

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

7 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season

Arias B.Kirkin E.

1st serve in·Slight edge

62%

54%

1st serve points won·Even

67%

70%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

44%

49%

Service points won·Even

58%

60%

Return points won·Even

39%

42%

Break points saved·Clear edge

67%

55%

Aces / match·Dominant

1.7

4.9

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.6

2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Arias B.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Kirkin E.

Kirkin E.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Arias B.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Arias B.Kirkin E.

Freshness·

—

Kirkin E.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 82 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

25°CMainly clear

Wind 14 km/hHumidity 50%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.