Patricio Alvarado vs Quinn Vandecasteele — Brownsburg Qualifying Semi-final
Brownsburg · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
—
Sets
Sunday, 9 August 2026 ·
hard
Alvarado P.vs
Vandecasteele Q.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTCAlvarado P.25%
Vandecasteele Q.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Vandecasteele Q. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsNo common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limitedForm & Matchup
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H5.0First meeting on hard
Surface form
1.41 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 14
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
5.5Won 58% in Usa (92)
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
4 vs 22 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Clear edge
71%
57%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
54%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
52%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
32%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.0
5.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.8
3.5
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (4 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Vandecasteele Q.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·
—
96
Vandecasteele Q.: 12 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Weather forecast
29°CMainly clear
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 60%
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-20 | M15 Cancun 15 | Q16 | hard | Patricio Alvarado | 6-4 6-2 |