Marta Kostyuk vs Madison Keys — Toronto Round of 32

Toronto · WTA · Round of 32
Marta Kostyuk
UKR10
Marta Kostyuk
#11WTA
2057ELO
1968Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
$10MCAREER
24 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWWWLWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
Madison Keys
USA19
Madison Keys
#22WTA
1987ELO
1920Hard ELO
$1.5MYTD
$25MCAREER
31 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWWWWWW
Kostyuk M.
vs
Keys M.

Marta Kostyuk faces Madison Keys in the Toronto round of 32 on hard. Marta Kostyuk is the paper favourite — ranked #11, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage — but Madison Keys has won both their previous meetings, though none on hard.

Around the match

  • “When he gifted me the letter, I was like, 'wow, this is like the reason why we actually do it', and it's very fulfilling and I'm happy I got to experience that today.”

    Kostyuk M.National Bank Open ↗

  • “It was very sweet. I was so surprised because you walk on court with a lot of different kids and you always try to make it a special moment for them. When he gifted me this, it was very, very sweet.”

    Kostyuk M.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Kostyuk M.58%
Keys M.42%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
10 common opponents · Kostyuk M. 10–5 · Keys M. 6–7
Both lost · same surface, 0 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kostyuk M.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Keys M.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.6+48 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1920
5.9Overall Elo 2057
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1987
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.67 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

33 vs 33 matches

Statistics

This season
Kostyuk M.Keys M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
47%
Service points won·Even
61%
61%
Return points won·Even
48%
44%
Break points saved·Even
62%
65%
Aces / match·Even
3.4
3.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.1
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kostyuk M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Keys M.

Keys M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Kostyuk M.

Serve advantage — Kostyuk M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kostyuk M.Keys M.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
85
90
Break points saved·Clear edge
72
85
Break points won·Even
94
92
Deciding sets·Even
95
94
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
80
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kostyuk M.Keys M.
Freshness·Even
88
84

Kostyuk M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Keys M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 12 km/hHumidity 84%

Head to head

0–2
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-07-01WimbledonR32grassMadison Keys6-4 6-3
2023-07-03WimbledonR32grassMadison Keys6-4 6-1

Draw