Maya Joint vs Liudmila Samsonova — Toronto Round of 32
AUS
Joint M.
Maya Joint faces Liudmila Samsonova in the Toronto round of 32 on hard. Liudmila Samsonova is the paper favourite — ranked #70, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 70-point hard Elo advantage — but Maya Joint rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Samsonova L. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Liudmila Samsonova grades 39 on serve, Maya Joint 24 on return.
- Fatigue load: Maya Joint carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
- Head-to-head: Liudmila Samsonova leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Wimbledon 2025.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadJoint M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 107 games (7d) · Samsonova L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 63 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | R128 | grass | Liudmila Samsonova | 6-3 6-2 |