Luciano Darderi vs Juncheng ShangMontreal Round of 32

Montreal · ATP · Round of 32
#22ATP
1835ELO
1678Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWWLWWW
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
#281ATP
1746ELO
1698Hard ELO
21 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WWLLLLWLWW
Darderi L.
vs
Shang J.

Luciano Darderi faces Juncheng Shang in the Montreal round of 32 on hard. Luciano Darderi holds the paper edge — ranked #22.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTC
Darderi L.46%
Shang J.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
8 common opponents · Darderi L. 4–5 · Shang J. 4–4
Shang J. better · different surfaces (Clay × Hard)
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1678
Surface ELO
5.3+20 Hard Elo edge
6.1Overall Elo 1834
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1746
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

39 vs 8 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
72%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
65%
Return points won·Slight edge
37%
29%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.3
4.5
Double faults / match·Even
2.4
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (39 vs 8). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Darderi L.serving93% hold

wins 72% of points on serve vs Shang J.

Shang J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Darderi L.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
67
61
Break points saved·Even
89
91
Break points won·Slight edge
26
16
Deciding sets·Slight edge
95
87
Tiebreaks·Even
95
91

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
78
63

Darderi L.: played today · 2 matches, 18 games (7d) · Shang J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
25°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 73%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw