Elmer Moller vs Carlos TabernerHagen Quarter-final

Hagen · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#184ATP
1609ELO
1593Clay ELO
$155kYTD
$727kCAREER
23 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWLLWLWL
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
clay
SPARKASSEN PREMIUM COURT · 3rd on
#409ATP
1610ELO
1605Clay ELO
$102kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
28 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLLWLWW
Moller E.
vs
Taberner C.

Elmer Moller faces Carlos Taberner in the Hagen quarter-final on clay. Elmer Moller is the paper favourite — ranked #184 — but Carlos Taberner arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on clay to Elmer Moller's 4.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Moller E.59%
Taberner C.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Moller E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.9Clay Elo 1593
Surface ELO
5.1+12 Clay Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1609
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1610
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.55 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

17 vs 2 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
62%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
36%
Service points won·Even
55%
51%
Return points won·Clear edge
40%
25%
Break points saved·Clear edge
56%
38%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.8
1.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
6.1
7.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 2). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Moller E.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Taberner C.

Taberner C.serving59% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Moller E.

Serve advantage — Moller E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
69
41
Break points saved·Dominant
81
49
Break points won·Slight edge
58
63
Deciding sets·Even
81
82
Tiebreaks·Dominant
82
9

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
71
72

Moller E.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Taberner C.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 36%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw