Casper Ruud vs Joao FonsecaMontreal Round of 32

Montreal · ATP · Round of 32
#17ATP
1983ELO
1889Hard ELO
$2.2MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 8 August 2026 ·
hard
CENTER COURT · 3rd on
#28ATP
1928ELO
1914Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$4.4MCAREER
20 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWW
Ruud C.
6-7 3-6
Fonseca J.
Ruud C.
6630
Fonseca J.
7862

Joao Fonseca defeated Casper Ruud in the Round of 32 of the Montreal tournament, winning 7-6, 6-3 on hard courts. Fonseca hit 5 aces and 2 double faults, converting 67% of break points and winning 71% of first-serve points. Ruud recorded 3 aces and 7 double faults, converting 14% of break points and winning 68% of first-serve points.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • When he was two, we were like, 'This boy is different.'

  • Despite recent injuries (back and shoulder), Fonseca achieved a notable milestone by winning his first National Bank Open match against Grand Slam finalist Tsitsipas.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

  • Match story: Joao Fonseca closed it out in two sets, 7–6 6–3.

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-31Roland GarrosR16clayJoao Fonseca5-7 7-5 2-6

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
71%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
56%
57%
Service points won·Even
66%
66%
Return points won·Even
36%
36%
Break points saved·Even
70%
69%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.6
5.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
88
66
Break points saved·Even
98
96
Break points won·Dominant
75
24
Deciding sets·Slight edge
99
90
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
96
90

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Ruud C.48%
Fonseca J.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1889
Surface ELO
5.3+25 Hard Elo edge
5.7Overall Elo 1983
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1928
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.36 of last 10 on hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
26°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 80%

Draw