Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca — Montreal Round of 32
NOR9
BRA22
Ruud C.
Casper Ruud faces Joao Fonseca in the Montreal round of 32 on hard. Joao Fonseca holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 30-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Casper Ruud has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 88 vs Joao Fonseca's 66).
- Last match: Casper Ruud dropped just 3 games past Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
- Last match: Joao Fonseca edged Stefanos Tsitsipas in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Roland Garros | R16 | clay | Joao Fonseca | 5-7 7-5 2-6 |