Kaylan Bigun vs Naoya HondaM25 Southaven Round of 16

M25 Southaven · ITF · Round of 16
#548ATP
1302ELO
1275Hard ELO
20 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLWLLLLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 7 August 2026 ·
hard
#668ATP
1240ELO
1236Hard ELO
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWWLW
Bigun K.
6-3 6-2
Honda N.
Bigun K.
662
Honda N.
320

Kaylan Bigun defeated Naoya Honda 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the M25 Southaven. Bigun and Honda were even in aces and double faults, but Bigun converted 33% of break points and won 67% of first-serve points to secure the win. Bigun won the match with one service break to Honda's zero.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
58%
54%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
62%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
54%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
66%
Return points won·Even
39%
42%
Break points saved·Even
54%
53%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.7
5.2
Double faults / match·Even
4.0
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Bigun K.25%
Honda N.75%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Honda N. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.1
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+39 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1236
5.8Overall Elo 1302
ELO gap
4.2Overall Elo 1240
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
0.71 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.55 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 6
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
4.3Won 39% in Usa (36)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
89

Bigun K.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
35°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 34%

Draw